Domingo, 02 de septiembre de 2007
Hola mis estimados amigos lectores:

hagan eco de la noticia. No es un simple chaparron, el Huracan Felix, de acuerdo a los pronosticos climaticos podr?a crear tragedias. El primer llamado para alertarnos sobre los posibles estragos que el huracan F?lix podr?a provocar lo ha hecho el blog de EL TROMPUDO. CLICK AQUI PARA IR A LA PAGINA Y LEER EL COMENTARIO

De all? podremos encontrar mas info en los comentarios con mas detalles del huracan.

Hagamos eco del llamado preventivo para evitar perdidas humanas, y que se organicen medidas necesarias antes de tiempo, para que los habitantes que vivan cercanos a los r?os tengan noci?n de lo que podr?a ocurrir y puedan al menos trasladarse a lugares de bajo riesgo.

Asi mismo buscar la manera de que tengan un lugar donde protegerse pues las lluvias creadas por el Huracan Felix podr?an ser intensas debido a que ?ste, se acercar? (de acuerdo a los pronosticos) a la zona norte de centroamerica, entrando directamente en Honduras.

Lo que comenzo como una tormenta tropical ahora se ha convertido en un huracan que pasara por la zona norte de centroamerica.

De acuerdo a los calculos se estima que Felix llegar? a la region centroamericana el d?a martes, y el miercoles posiblemente se encuentre en Hondura y cerca de Belice, por consiguiente la parte norte de Yucatan de nuevo sera abatida nuevamente por otro huracan.

De acuerdo a los pronosticos la intensidad de los vientos podrian crear estragos, ya que Felix a comenzado agrandarse.

Es bueno que se haga un llamado a tiempo para prevenir perdidas humanas, desalojar si es posible a las familias que vivan muy cerca de los rios, Felix provocara lluvias intensas y estas son las que llegan a El Salvador para afectar la creciente de los r?os, pues desde Honduras comienza el R?o Lempa y varios de los rios que recorren el oriente del pais.

Asi que hay que buscar la manera de ayudar, enviando mensajes preventivos para que la gente en El Salvador este alerta ante lo que pueda suceder.

Vale mas prevenir que lamentar.


Trayectoria del huracan Felix.

Felix a major threat to Central America; new disturbance could develop

Tropical Storm Felix lashed the islands of Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines with winds near tropical storm force and torrential rains this morning. Visible satellite loops show that Felix is a small storm, but is steadily expanding in size and growing more organized. Low level spiral bands have formed on the eastern side, and there is one respectable upper-level outflow jet that has formed to the storm's north. Dry air on the northwest side of Felix continues to hamper its intensification, but the storm is small enough that dry air drawn in from the north coast of South America has not been a problem.

Felix is a major danger to Central America

The latest GFDL model forecasts that Felix will intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday. The SHIPS intensity model is more aggressive, making Felix a Category 3 hurricane. Given that the environment in the Caribbean is much the same as we saw for Dean, I think we can expect a steady intensification of Felix to a Category 2 or 3 storm when it approaches the Honduras/Nicaragua border Monday night. On the current projected track of Felix, it would pass just north of the coast of Honduras, which would be an extremely dangerous situation for that country. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 passed along the north coast of Honduras in 1974 as a Category 2 hurricane (Figure 1), and dumped up to 24 inches of rain on the mountainous country. The resulting landslides and floods killed an estimated 8,000 people--the fourth deadliest hurricane disaster in the Atlantic basin. There is one important difference between Fifi and Felix--Fifi was moving slower, about 11 mph, Felix is expected to move past Honduras at about 17 mph, so will not linger as long to dump heavy rains. Even so, Felix's rains could reach 10-15 inches over Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Belize. Officials in those nations need to prepare now for the possibility that Felix could bring a major flooding disaster to their nations.

Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Fifi of 1974, which killed 8000 people in Central America. Fifi was the fourth deadliest hurricane in Atlantic history.

Felix's threat to other locales

Felix should being winds of tropical storm force to Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao as it passes to the north. These islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela, will also get heavy rains, but Felix should not cause any serious wind damage or floods in those areas. The ridge of high pressure that is steering Felix to the west is strong enough that a northward deviation of the storm into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands is unlikely. If Felix is going to deviate from the projected NHC forecast the next two days, I think a southward deviation into Nicaragua is more likely.

If Felix does stay far enough north to make it into the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a trough of low pressure forecast to swing north of the region that could turn Felix on a more northwesterly track into the Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on this, and we'll have to wait and see. Those of you planning on being in Cancun or Cozumel on Wednesday should pay close attention to Felix.

The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.

Felix Becomes Hurricane in Caribbean

Sunday September 2, 2007 4:16 AM


Associated Press Writer

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada (AP) - Hurricane Felix gathered strength Saturday and pounded Grenada with heavy rains and winds, snapping small boats loose from their moorings and toppling utility poles on its route toward the Caribbean island of Aruba.

The storm was upgraded from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane Saturday evening, with sustained maximum winds near 75 mph. It was expected to strengthen even further as its outer bands started lashing the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao overnight. All three islands were under a hurricane watch.

Tropical Storm Henriette, meanwhile, was moving out to sea after dumping rain on Mexico's Pacific coastline. In Acapulco, the storm loosened a boulder that smashed into a home, killing three people. A teenager and her two brothers were also killed when a landslide slammed into their house in a poor neighborhood of the glitzy resort.

Felix swept over Grenada on Saturday, knocking local radio and TV stations out of service and toppling utility lines. No injuries were immediately reported, but the storm ripped roofs off at least two homes and a popular concert venue was demolished. Orchards were left in ruin.

Jess Charles, 29, said he and his family waited out the storm in their house in the town of Calliste, listening to its howling winds.

``It was really very, very scary. The wind was blowing so hard we thought our roof might come off,'' Charles told The Associated Press.

Felix became the sixth named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season early Saturday, spawning thunderstorms and downing trees in Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and the twin-island nation of Trinidad and Tobago. The Caribbean islands reported only minor damage.

At 11 p.m. EDT, Felix was centered about 100 miles east-northeast of Bonaire and 210 miles east of Aruba and was moving westward at about 18 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters said satellite loops show the storm is steadily expanding in size.

In Aruba, residents stocked up on groceries, flashlights and window-reinforcements. Tourists crowded the airport to catch flights out before the storm arrived.

A long line of customers snaked through the Wema Home and Hardware Center in Aruba's capital, which was doing a brisk business selling plywood and boards as jittery residents and employees of gleaming tourist hotels prepared to safeguard windows and doors.

``This kind of weather doesn't usually make it to Aruba, so people are definitely worried,'' said store cashier Mark Werleman.

A tropical storm watch was also issued for Jamaica, further to the west. The storm was predicted to skirt Jamaica and the coast of Honduras and possibly make landfall in Belize sometime on Wednesday before crossing Mexico's Yucatan peninsula.

Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the hurricane center, advised employees of oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to monitor Felix's progress. She said the storm could enter the area in four to five days.

With maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, Tropical Storm Henriette was expected to become a hurricane by Sunday, but forecasters put it on a path that did not threaten land until Thursday, when it could hit a remote section of the Baja California peninsula.

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Tags: Huracan_Felix

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